Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 1.987125 2.102581 2.223794 2.360983 2.512489 2.675321 2.864404
2025-09-14 1.794428 1.951030 2.123049 2.327574 2.566193 2.838436 3.176451
2025-09-21 1.666090 1.843673 2.044631 2.291679 2.591231 2.948192 3.414556
2025-09-28 1.563924 1.753574 1.973069 2.249967 2.596124 3.023521 3.606443
2025-10-05 1.518711 1.724672 1.968327 2.283686 2.690329 3.211305 3.955489
2025-10-12 1.481769 1.701708 1.967021 2.318484 2.784862 3.403696 4.328694
2025-10-19 1.446499 1.677661 1.961369 2.345141 2.867961 3.584931 4.704843
2025-10-26 1.399285 1.635591 1.929621 2.334117 2.897181 3.690945 4.978761
2025-11-02 1.356408 1.596571 1.899117 2.321770 2.921952 3.790323 5.251835
2025-11-09 1.311667 1.552954 1.860096 2.294808 2.922804 3.852344 5.469200
2025-11-16 1.269673 1.511062 1.821201 2.265348 2.917089 3.902308 5.670252
2025-11-23 1.242985 1.488013 1.806166 2.267974 2.958032 4.027379 6.019810
2025-11-30 1.220694 1.470400 1.798269 2.281089 3.016863 4.188690 6.467198
2025-12-07 1.184159 1.432446 1.760964 2.249599 3.004566 4.230645 6.690150
2025-12-14 1.149172 1.395372 1.723368 2.215629 2.985762 4.259078 6.889153
2025-12-21 1.114458 1.357579 1.683377 2.176133 2.955443 4.264349 7.039602
2025-12-28 1.105089 1.353973 1.691042 2.208063 3.042209 4.484948 7.701266
2026-01-04 1.096559 1.351078 1.699350 2.240998 3.132423 4.720991 8.454720
2026-01-11 1.086104 1.345055 1.702751 2.266216 3.210973 4.943319 9.233919
2026-01-18 1.065685 1.324404 1.684110 2.255788 3.226914 5.044217 9.722036
2026-01-25 1.045929 1.304120 1.665285 2.244107 3.239657 5.139587 10.220266
2026-02-01 1.023198 1.279024 1.638576 2.218591 3.225990 5.178808 10.565899
2026-02-08 1.000811 1.253885 1.611083 2.190700 3.206363 5.203563 10.875576